Markets in 2021
How are the markets doing?
Icelandic stocks rose a lot
Kibba: Icelandic stocks (OMXI15) averaged a lot higher than the year before, by 49.6%. The króna averaged noticeably stronger against the euro than the year before, by 2.9%. Bitcoin averaged a lot dearer in króna than the year before, by 272.0%.
- The time machine controls the cards above. The tools in the tabs below have their own periods.
The króna
- 1 EUR ISK 150.11 króna ▲ 2.9% stronger
- 1 USD ISK 126.99 króna ▲ 6.6% stronger
- 100 JPY ISK 115.58 króna ▲ 9.8% stronger
Average for 2021 · change from the 2020 average
Bitcoin & gold
- ₿ Bitcoin (1 BTC) $47,581 ▲ +272.0% in ISK
- 🥇 Gold (1 ounce) $1,807 ▼ −5.9% in ISK
Average for 2021 · change from the 2020 average
Interest & stocks
- Central bank rate 1.17%
- Real rate (after inflation) −3.3%
- Long government bond yield 3.39%
- OMXI15 (15 largest companies) Average for 2021 · change from the 2020 average 3,122 ▲ +49.6%
Tools
Independent of the time machine: each tool has its own period and covers all the history there is data for.
What if you had set money aside?
The same amount bought every month. Pick an asset and an amount, then travel through time with the sliders.
- Paid in—
- Final value—
- Gain or loss—Total change over the period, not a yearly return.
- Average buying price—
- Buying every month—
- Cash waiting—No interest; included in the end value.
- All bought at the start—
Final value Paid in Buying every month Buying months
Price and averages
Price 50-week average 100-week average 200-week average
The data is iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH), a fund that tracks the MSCI World index.
S&P 500 is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), a fund that tracks the 500 largest US companies.
Assumptions
Each purchase is at the month's average price, with no fees or taxes. Dollar and euro amounts are converted to króna at each month's exchange rate. The average purchase price is the total paid divided by the units bought. This is an example, not financial advice.
"All bought at the start" shows the same total bought in the first month. It assumes the whole amount was available right at the start.
"Below the average" compares the previous month's average price with the 50-, 100- or 200-week average of weekly closes at its end, since a month has to be over before that is known. In months above the average the amount waits as cash without interest and is all invested the next time the price is below. Until there is enough history for the average, buying goes on as usual; the 200-week average needs about four years, so it starts in mid-2020 for the stocks and in 2023 for gold.
OMXI15: Dividends not included: OMXI15 is a price index.
Global stocks — MSCI World (URTH): Dividends included: URTH prices are adjusted for dividends, so dividends are reinvested.
US stocks — S&P 500 (SPY): Dividends included: SPY prices are adjusted for dividends, so dividends are reinvested.
Bitcoin: No dividends: Bitcoin pays none.
Gold: No dividends: gold pays none.
Bitcoin cycles
So far Bitcoin has moved in roughly four-year cycles. Each cycle here starts at 100, either at a halving, when the rate of new bitcoin is cut in half, or at the cycle bottom, so the cycles can be laid over each other.
Start at a halving: the date is set in advance by Bitcoin's code.
| Cycle | After 31 months | High over the whole cycle |
|---|---|---|
| 2016–2020 | +515% | 26.3× after 17 months |
| 2020–2024 | +79% | 7.3× after 46 months |
| 2024–Now | +27% | 1.9× after 17 months (so far) |
- Every cycle is compared after the same number of months from its start. The last column is the highest point of the whole cycle, whatever the month.
- A historical pattern is not a forecast.
Start at a historical bottom: the cycle's lowest price, picked afterwards.
| Cycle | After 46 months | High over the whole cycle |
|---|---|---|
| 2015–2018 | +1,566% | 73.4× after 35 months |
| 2018–2022 | +423% | 17.5× after 34 months |
| 2022–Now | +390% | 7.0× after 34 months (so far) |
- Every cycle is compared after the same number of months from its start. The last column is the highest point of the whole cycle, whatever the month.
- Bottoms are picked with hindsight: at the time, nobody knew the bottom had been reached.
- A historical pattern is not a forecast.
About the data
Prices in US dollars, each month's average from Kraken, so the króna has no effect. Halving months: November 2012, July 2016, May 2020 and April 2024. Bottoms: January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, by the lowest daily price; the monthly average can bottom a month later. Kraken's Bitcoin history starts in autumn 2013, so the first cycle is missing, and the current cycle ends only at the next confirmed bottom. The vertical scale is proportional: the same distance means the same percentage change. Past cycles say nothing certain about the next one.
Icelandic stocks and interest rates
The 15 largest companies on the Icelandic stock market above an Icelandic interest rate or inflation, month by month on the same time axis. Shaded months are when the chosen rate was rising.
How is this calculated?
Moving together does not prove that one causes the other. OMXI15 history starts in October 2016.
Global assets in króna
Global and US stocks, Bitcoin and gold are priced on world markets, so Icelandic interest rates do not set their price. What links them to Iceland is the króna: the price in króna is the world price times the exchange rate. Shaded months are when the króna was weakening against the dollar.
Króna weakening against the dollar
The data is iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH), a fund that tracks the MSCI World index. S&P 500 is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), a fund that tracks the 500 largest US companies.
About the data
Global stocks are the iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH) and the S&P 500 is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), both with prices adjusted for dividends, from October 2016; gold is PAX Gold (PAXG), from October 2019. A 50-week average needs about a year of data and a 200-week average four years, so each line starts once that much is available. Exchange rates before 2018 are yearly averages, because the ECB did not quote the króna then. See the "Gold sources" table under Method and data.
Króna, dollar, euro or gold: which held its value best?
Each is set to 100 in the start month and measured on the same scale. Whatever ends highest held its value best over the period. The yardstick itself always stays at 100.
- Króna—
- Dollar—
- Euro—
- Gold—
Assumptions
Dollar and euro rates are monthly averages; before the European Central Bank published króna rates, the annual average is used. Gold is the monthly close of COMEX futures, converted to krónur at that month's rate. Where a COMEX price is missing, Kraken's gold price is used, or else the average of the months before and after. Purchasing power in Iceland uses the consumer price index: 100 means the amount buys as much as at the start. See the "Gold sources" table under Method and data.
Here the money is held without interest. Real deposits earn interest, and króna rates have often been much higher than dollar and euro rates, so a króna deposit does better than shown here. Gold earns nothing. Not investment advice.
Gold and US Treasury bonds
Gold pays no interest. When US Treasury bonds pay well above inflation (high real yields), holding gold instead costs more, and gold often falls. When real yields fall, gold becomes more attractive. Shaded months are when real yields rose fast.
- Gold (ounce) 3,938 USD Nov 2026
- 10-year real yield (TIPS) 2.62% 2026-11-02
- 10-year yield 4.91% 2026-11-02
Since Jan 2004: when the 10-year real yield rose by 0.5 percentage points or more over 12 months, gold moved +3.0% on average over the same time (43 months). When it fell as much, gold moved +23.3% (42 months).
Correlation of 12-month changes in gold and real yields: −0.42 over the whole period, −0.52 before 2022 and −0.78 since 2022 (−1 is a fully opposite move, 0 no link).
Real yields rising fast (0.5 percentage points in 6 months)
About the data
Yields are from the US Department of the Treasury (daily par yield curve and daily real yield curve, 10 years), monthly averages from 2003. Gold is the monthly closing price of COMEX futures (Yahoo Finance); the source lacks a month now and then, which the chart bridges straight between its neighbours, while the numbers above use real prices only. The real yield is what inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) pay above inflation. The link is a tendency, not a law: gold rose strongly in 2023–2025 despite high yields, as central banks bought a lot of gold. Not financial advice. See the "Gold sources" table under Method and data.